Comments on: Planning, Scheduling, and Forecasting http://www.reformingprojectmanagement.com/2007/02/20/772/ The magazine for the project age Fri, 08 Aug 2008 20:51:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.5 by: Robert Ferguson http://www.reformingprojectmanagement.com/2007/02/20/772/#comment-13361 Wed, 21 Feb 2007 13:47:06 +0000 http://www.reformingprojectmanagement.com/2007/02/20/772/#comment-13361 Hal, Nice comment about forecasting today. In fact both estimation and forecasting require some knowledge (history) of team performance. Last planner uses %ppc as a performance measure. If I have knowledge of team performance then the team can make projections about completion and range of error (risk). Team level measures must be owned and collected by the team. I suggest we consider performance measures for schedule, throughput, productivity and a quality index. The project manager can keep each of the performance measures for each team as a stoplight. A team operating as desired gets green lights. This does not mean perfect but means within the % error inherent in the work and measurement system. A team operating within the bounds of their contingency gets yellow. A team that is operating outside of contingency gets red. Any red light or three successive yellow lights warrants an investigation and possible change action. Something in the plan is not working or something is happening at the team level that will cause a problem. Forecasting is important. It is what our sponsors and customers want to know and informing them is an essential element of project success. Bob Ferguson Hal,
Nice comment about forecasting today. In fact both estimation and forecasting require some knowledge (history) of team performance. Last planner uses %PPC as a performance measure.

If I have knowledge of team performance then the team can make projections about completion and range of error (risk).

Team level measures must be owned and collected by the team. I suggest we consider performance measures for schedule, throughput, productivity and a quality index.

The project manager can keep each of the performance measures for each team as a stoplight. A team operating as desired gets green lights. This does not mean perfect but means within the % error inherent in the work and measurement system. A team operating within the bounds of their contingency gets yellow. A team that is operating outside of contingency gets red.

Any red light or three successive yellow lights warrants an investigation and possible change action. Something in the plan is not working or something is happening at the team level that will cause a problem.

Forecasting is important. It is what our sponsors and customers want to know and informing them is an essential element of project success.

Bob Ferguson

]]> by: Glen B. Alleman http://www.reformingprojectmanagement.com/2007/02/20/772/#comment-13353 Wed, 21 Feb 2007 05:15:26 +0000 http://www.reformingprojectmanagement.com/2007/02/20/772/#comment-13353 Hal, I see in your example the source of the comments on "scheduling" of the repairman and the questions to PM's regarding forecasting. The world of project management as a profession is very broad and very deep. With overlap in some cases. The defense experinces I speak of are also found in large construction in the petrochemical industray for example. Finance and insurance enteprise project have similar processes in place for seperating planning from scehduling. There are no doubt unlimted counter examples to me experinces. So when you say "project managers and planners haven't been trained to forecast," a qualification of domain may add value, because all the ones I've know over the decades at places like Chevron, Texaco, Bosie Cascade, Duke Power, Salt River, SCE, PG&E, Monsanto, Wells Fargo, Amgen, Exxon, TVA, ... have in most cases acted in ways I describe. Isn't it a wonderful things to have such variety? Hal,
I see in your example the source of the comments on “scheduling” of the repairman and the questions to PM’s regarding forecasting. The world of project management as a profession is very broad and very deep. With overlap in some cases. The defense experinces I speak of are also found in large construction in the petrochemical industray for example. Finance and insurance enteprise project have similar processes in place for seperating planning from scehduling.

There are no doubt unlimted counter examples to me experinces. So when you say “project managers and planners haven’t been trained to forecast,” a qualification of domain may add value, because all the ones I’ve know over the decades at places like Chevron, Texaco, Bosie Cascade, Duke Power, Salt River, SCE, PG&E, Monsanto, Wells Fargo, Amgen, Exxon, TVA, … have in most cases acted in ways I describe.

Isn’t it a wonderful things to have such variety?

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