Misunderstanding Project Planning as Anticipation
February 19th, 2007 by HalOur everyday speaking gets in the way of better planning. This weekend I was listening to Tim Russert interview Presidential Spokesman Tony Snow on Meet the Press. Tim asked Tony about the plan for winning the war in Iraq. The question inferred that something went terribly wrong. Tony replied,
"I'm not sure anything went wrong. Battle plans don't live beyond the first encounter with the enemy."
Tony went on to say that like most of life we can't anticipate the future…no amount of planning can change that. Tony is right about that. The future is uncertain and unknowable. Grasping that fact is a key to better planning.
Let's look at the essence of planning.
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Anticipating the future is the job of forecasters not project managers. Good project managers know they can't predict the future.
Planning is preparation for future action.
- In the face of an always-uncertain and unknowable future, planning considers a range of possibilities rather than a single course of action. The usual project plan doesn't represent those range of actions. Instead, planning narrowed the possibilities to a single course of action. By nature one course rather than a set of possible actions is bound to fall short.
- When people plan — and I've seen projects where planning is not occurring — plans are often developed by smart experienced people with a (somewhat) detached view of the project. Their plan is then conveyed to the project performers. While the plan might be brilliant in conception, the participants have not participated in the conversation for developing the plan. I'll quote President Eisenhower again, "Plans are nothing; planning is everything." We prepare ourselves as performers when we are in the conversation of planning.
- Planning leads us to promising.
- Projects are conducted in networks of commitments, whether or not participants recognize that fact. Planning is the conversation that just precedes commitment-making. Performers make promises reflecting on the possible project futures and those performers who have just promised. An unpredictable network of commitments unfolds providing shape to the project. However, some of those promises will not be met. Performers will have to repromise and others performers will adjust their actions based on the new promises. These conversations lead to re-planning in real time.
Planning is a conversation.
Anticipating the future is the job of forecasters not project managers. Good project managers know they can't predict the future. The very best project managers make a habit of continuously re-planning their projects with the people who are performing the work. Perhaps that is the lesson Tony Snow needs to bring back.
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