Embracing Uncertainty Again
March 19th, 2003 by HalProjects are performed in a setting of uncertainty. To that we add dependence (linked tasks) and variation (uncertain task completions and task releases). The result is a crap shoot. Who's to know when a project will complete? Awhile back I raved about the book Embracing Uncertainty: The Essence of Leadership, by Philip Clampitt and Robert DeKoch. The book is really a winner. There are other texts by the same authors and they're free! Embracing Uncertainty: The Executive's Challenge, by Philip Clampitt, Robert DeKoch, and Dee Williams, June 2001, lays out the basic premise of their book on leadership.
The authors' work is based on research, experience managing operations, and consulting. They claim our predictive deterministic approach produces a false confidence that inevitably produces anxiety and results in missed objectives. Instead, they say embrace uncertainty. They describe three classes of actions for engaging with teams.
Cultivating an Awareness of Uncertainty:
- Occasionally "shake the platform."
- Challenge existing heuristics or rules-of-thumb.
- Orient organizational identity around core competencies not particular products.
- or services.
- Monitor the internal and external environment.
Awareness is a first step. When we are attuned to the uncertainty of the situation we are in a position to take action.
Communicating about the Uncertainty:
- De-emphasize formal presentations.
- Modify organizational language.
- Discuss contingencies.
- Ask penetrating questions.
- Focus the internal communication system on thinking routines and speed.
The key here is to change the everyday dialogue on the team. Aim for a shift from "I know what is going on" to "I wonder what we will encounter?"
Practices for Catalyzing Action:
- Hire the right people.
- Look for the deeper pattern.
- Experiment.
- Use technology as a lever.
- Decide at the last possible moment.
- Play the odds.
And while you're at it, avoid practices that add to the variability on your project. Only release work that is ready to be finished. Manage from the bottoms-up by encouraging team members to promise their tasks reliably. Learn from your plan successes and failures.
If you liked the above article, then check out the complementary paper by Clampitt and Williams Managing Organizational Uncertainty: Conceptualization and Measurement. It offers more supporting details on their research.
Want to read more on the subject? Take a look at this posting on Managing Project Uncertainty and the related paper published in the MIT Sloan Management Review.
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March 20th, 2003 at 1:25 pm
Hi Hal,
quite a load of stuff this morning. I know you refer again to some reference papers you have listed on the left side of your blog, but the new references are quite a load to read (where will I find time to do my work !!!). But they come at te right time. I am in the mist of preparing a presentation, on May 7, to PMI Montreal on eXtreme Project Management ( http://www.pmimontreal.org/pmi/site/calendar.jsp?pIntention=14&dateMonth=4&dateYear=2003 ) and the main argument is basically embracing uncertainty-chaos and dealing with it through agile behaviours. Among other things, I will certainly refer my worried crowd to the Meyer-Loch-Pich excellent paper on managing project uncertainty. And by the way, I will also refer them to your weblog; tell me then if traffic increases (I’ll ask again later) and if you get new captive audiences. I would send you a copy of the presentation, but it is in French- but maybe it’s OK with you- let me know.
As for my sweet revenge to this load of reading you promote in your last post, I refer you and others to the following address: http://www.cbi.cgey.com/cgi-bin/pastevents.plx . It is the door to the contents of 5 public conferences from the Center for Business Innovation on ‘Embracing Complexity ‘ (is it the same as embracing ‘certain uncertainty’ ?). If you click on one of the conferences, and then go to ’session summaries’ on the left, there are maybe 20 6-to-7-page very well done summaries on this ultimate embrace, with a lot of nice mindmaps. Hope you still find some time to work too
March 20th, 2003 at 3:29 pm
Claude,
So, turnabout is fair play.
I will check out the presentations. Tell us all more about your role with PMI.
I’m not fluent with French inspite of five years of study in secondary school. While it got me by when visiting France in the early 90s if I’m to understand then it needs to be in English. Would Babelfish do for translation?
March 20th, 2003 at 6:05 pm
Aside from being the editor of the PMI-Montreal Chapter newsletter (which ensures everybody on the Board of Directors knows me quite well, plus quite a lot of the 1200 members), I am just a regular member who speaks of controversial issues a bit louder than others and uses my Chapter as a tribune to share knowledge and grow (hopefully) in wisdom, my goal being to achieve project management ‘holy guruship’ in the current lifetime because I do not want to be reincarnated anymore…
About Babelfish, I don’t think it works with a powerpoint file. But I’ll end up making a bilingual paper out of it after the presentation.
March 20th, 2003 at 8:35 pm
Claude:
I understand that you did not exactly wish more load, but regarding your extreme PM presentation, here a paper where I and Greg tried to interpret SCRUM and Last Planner theoretically:
http://www.cpgec.ufrgs.br/norie/iglc10/papers/47-Koskela&Howell.pdf
Further, here an overview on agile methods by local colleagues:
http://www.inf.vtt.fi/pdf/publications/2002/P478.pdf
March 20th, 2003 at 9:42 pm
Kiitoksia oikein paljon, Lauri.
I already know the high quality of your thoughts, thanks to Hal, and I am quite pleased to handle the extra load that you propose to me. For one,it will get me good argumentative material on the SCRUM approach (which I reduced to its barest expression in my presentation). I don’t speak Finnish
(I got help from www.travlang.com , after a few pop-ups), but how about your French ? ( I could get you an early copy of my presentation to fire at !)
Näkemiin
March 21st, 2003 at 7:54 am
Claude:
I am an ardent student of French, and would be happy to receive an early copy!
A revoir!
March 21st, 2003 at 11:54 am
Thank you very much Lauri. I am on training today (managing project teams through coaching). When I am back tonight, I’ll send it to you with a few explanations (not always self evident where one is heading to with powerpoint illustrations).
Näkemiin
March 28th, 2003 at 7:06 am
DavidSchmaltz writes a lot of good stuff about the inherent uncertainty of projects.
http://webseitz.fluxent.com/wiki/DavidSchmaltz