Thinking with Your Gut Redux
November 9th, 2002 by HalI didn't get the interest I expected from my posting on Wednesday How to Think with Your Gut. I asked readers to leave a comment describing a situation where a project benefited in a surprising way from someone thinking with his or her gut. No one commented! Might this just be a foreign practice? Or is this uninteresting to comment on? Or is it something else altogether? I'd really like to hear from a few people on this topic. Your comments will help me focus my writing for you.
At the risk of beating a dead horse, my post today will elaborate on Thomas Stewart's article. As I began thinking about yesterday's posting on Managing Project Uncertainty the skill and practice of thinking with your gut looked more relevant. Stewart makes three important points for us as project managers.
- "What the science suggests is that intuition — or instinct, or hunch, or "learning without awareness," or whatever you want to call it — is a real form of knowledge. It may be nonrational, ineffable, and not always easy to get in touch with, but it can process more information on a more sophisticated level than most of us ever dreamed.
"People excel at "abduction," which is less like reason than inspired guesswork. (Deduction: All taxis are yellow; this is a taxi; therefore it is yellow. Induction: These are all taxis; these are all yellow; therefore, all taxis are probably yellow. Abduction: All taxis are yellow; this vehicle is yellow; therefore this is probably a taxi.) Abduction leaps to conclusions by connecting a known pattern (taxis are yellow) to a specific situation (this yellow vehicle must be a taxi). Compared with computers, people are lousy number crunchers but superb pattern makers — even without being aware of it.
"Research suggests that neither nose-in-the-spreadsheet rationality nor pure gut inspiration is right all the time. The best approach lies somewhere between the extremes, the exact point depending on the situation."
Why are these points so important to us? The answer lies in a four-level model for solving problems. (Notice the similarity to the four levels of uncertainty?)
- The problem is covered by rules.
- The situation is complicated.
- The situation is complex.
- The situation is chaotic.
The author describes how we must adjust our behavior to the situation. Gut thinking becomes more relevant as one moves towards chaotic situations. Most projects fall somewhere in the middle; they are complicated and complex. Calling on our own gut thinking isn't just a good thing, it might be the only way to address the problem.
Stewart leaves us with the following reassuring thoughts,
- "Chances are that the classic linear model you thought you were following — data comes in, you analyze, draw inferences, make a decision — was partly an illusion anyway. "The data doesn't just 'come in,'" Klein points out. "You have to figure out where you're going to look — and that is an intuitive process." In other words, you already are more of an intuitive decision-maker than you may have thought."
For more on developing the skill see the inset Getting in Touch With Your Gut on the first page of Stewart's article. He offers four guidelines for becoming "high intuitives." Try it out. Our projects can only benefit.
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November 10th, 2002 at 9:45 pm
I think you’re right about it being a hard sell. Even with a good track record we live in a world where we’ve been taught to be rational. But remember I have been talking about the implications for project managers. I don’t know enough about making the big pitch to a board of directors to make any claims about that.
I find my inklings are some of the most creative thoughts I have. I didn’t use to give myself permission to speak these often off-the-wall ideas. Then I decided what the hell. I say it and ask others what positive they saw in it. (Most people won’t just shoot me down in the face of my ivitation.) I also invited people to build on my crazy idea. The experience was always positive. Often we would end at a place that was actionable. In all cases we learned.
So I started inviting others to express their crazy thoughts. I take the disposition in project meetings to tease ideas out of people. People generally like both the interest in them and the openness to wild ideas. I don’t see how we can loose AND imagine how much fun projects might be if we make it a habit!